Wisdom Farms

Not All Data Supports a Bright Future for the US Economy

As you know I am a proponent that the fox is currently in charge of guarding the hen house.  The financial arena hires 1 in 7 people. So there are a lot of people who are interested in how money moves and have a "stake" to make sure the "chickens" are well tended and waiting for the slaughter. I do not trust the Federal Reserve, it is neither Federal nor a reserve.

Ever ask yourself why are there so many financial planners today? How much money do you have wrapped up in paper, plans and products that are basically worth nothing if anything would happen? What will happen to the paper you have placed your trust in, if that paper is devauled even more? 

Here is an excellent article by Brian Farmer exposing the Fox.

Not All Data Support Bright Future for Economy
By Brian Farmer

Investor's Business Daily (IBD) reported, "The U.S. economy expanded in April and May, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday, adding to signs that growth is picking up from the first quarter's tepid 0.6%."

Follow this link to the original source: "Beige Book Bolsters Views Of Economy Building Momentum  [1]"

COMMENTARY:

Although the article paints a relatively rosy picture for the future of the U.S. economy, many risks still remain. History shows that a hard landing or recession is still highly probable. In the past, recessions have occurred under the following circumstances:

1) Whenever gross domestic product (GDP) growth was less than 3% on an annualized basis for five consecutive quarters.

2) When the Fed tightened monetary policy (eight of the last ten times).

3) When the yield curve was inverted, i.e., when short-term interest rates were higher than long-term interest rates (six of the last seven times).

4) When the Conference Board Leading Indicators were 0.5% or more below a year earlier (nine of the last ten times).

5) When new building permits were 25% or more below a year earlier (seven of the last nine times).

6) Whenever payroll employment growth dropped to 1.4%.

All of the above have now occurred. It is worth noting that the consensus of economists has never predicted a recession in advance. Who would you rather go along with: a group of indicators with a high probability of being correct, or a group of "experts" that has never gotten it right?

One optimistic argument being made is that any softness in the U.S. economy will be largely offset by a strong global economy. But according to Northern Trust Chief Economist Paul Kasriel, this is not likely. He points out that the weakening segments of the U.S. economy — consumer spending, housing, and capital expenditures — account for 85% of GDP, while exports account for just 11.5%. In addition, domestic demand as a percentage of GDP is declining in Europe, China and Japan, meaning that exports are accounting for most of their growth. 

Kasriel estimates that U.S. consumer spending accounts for 29% of the rest of the world's GDP, and acts as their locomotive for growth. It is therefore unlikely that global growth prospects can be counted on to support the positive growth outlook for the United States.

The IDB article states, "May retail sales surged at the fastest pace in 16 months, the Commerce Department said earlier Wednesday. That suggests consumer spending continues to buoy the economy." But what the article fails to mention is that retail sales were a disaster in April, plunging to the largest monthly decline since 1970. To get a more accurate picture of what is happening, it is better to look at monthly figures going back over a whole year. The monthly bars in the Retail Sales chart accompanying the IBD article clearly show that the trend is down.

As the Federal Reserve forecasts a bright future for the U.S. economy, despite the aforementioned indicators implying otherwise, it is worth keeping in mind the words of Warren Buffet, arguably the most successful investor of all time: "Don't put your faith in forecasts. They are usually wrong."

Endnotes

[1] http://www.investors.com/editorial/IBDArticles.asp?artsec=5&issue=20070613

http://www.jbs.org/node/4403/print 

In His Service,

Ray
Wisdom Farms

http://www.wisdomfarms.com

Wise Words From My Wife - MUST READ!!

OUR GREAT COTTAGE & HOMESTEAD BUSINESSES

Hi Everyone,

Something Ray and I wholeheartedly believe in is multiple streams of income. That way when one is down the other may be up. We are always looking for good solid viable business endeavors.

One of the wonderful things we have found is Arbonne . Some of the best facial, makeup and weight loss products on the market. The fee to get involved is nominal. One of the reasons I like it so much is the company will not allow you to stock up on product because they want the customer to have the best and freshest available. It is not like so many other companies that force you to go into debt and buy a lot and let it rot if it does not sell.

Check it out http://tdgano.myarbonne.com/arbonne/tdgano.nsf 

Another business we have just found is also AMAZING but for a different reason. It is Send Out Cards . Ray and I are so excited about this we can hardly contain our enthusiasm. It is allowing us to reach out to family, friends, Arbonne clients as well as our Prophezine and Wisdom Farms family.

I was terrible at remembering birthdays, holiday cards, and sending out thank you's; though I meant well, it just never seemed to happen. IF I made it to the store to buy a card, I usually left it sitting until it was to late to send.

That has ALL changed. I have all our family and friends Birthdays and Anniversary's entered now into the database, and can set up months, or years in advance to send out a card and forget about it. It is all done via the Internet. I can also create my own custom cards using my own photos and pictures and even scan in a business card (That is this graphic designer girls dream come true)!! Also you can add gift cards and send a personal check all without having to ever leave your computer desk! I just sent my son a Birthday card and a Wal Mart gift card, and I did not have to go to Wal Mart to buy the card. My son is probably going to pass out though, because I never sent cards before. :)

And did I mention it is cost LESS than buying a store bought card, and the convenience is not even comparable!

You can use this system just for personal use or build a business. Please check out all the benefits this has to offer.

http://www.sendoutcards.com/gano 

If any of you have any questions about Arbonne  or Send Out Cards , please email me and ask away!

Tracye
http://tdgano.myarbonne.com/arbonne/tdgano.nsf  - Arbonne

http://www.sendoutcards.com/gano - Send Out Cards

Wise Words From My Wife

Stewardship - Part 1
By Tracye Gano

Money is usually what comes to mind when the subject is stewardship; but money is not the only thing we can be good stewards of. Our finances are certainly an important part of that, but there are other areas that we may overlook.

Being a good steward means taking care of, being thankful for, and dealing wisely with all the things God has given us.

Our children are an area that we as Christians can and should be good stewards over. God says we are to train up a child in the way that they should go. The way He is referring to is His way, through His Word.

Psalm 119:105 Thy word is a lamp unto my feet, and a light unto my path.

Far too many in today's society have given over the spiritual, moral, and upright training of our children to a governmental and societal system that is hostile to Christianity and all that we believe in and stand on.

There are things that you can do to help offset the humanistic messages that our children are assaulted with daily.

Having your children in a good Bible believing, teaching church is good. But we should not as parents think that the church should be the primary source for our children's spiritual training.

As parents we should spend time in the Word with our children teaching them about God and His ways. We should teach them the timeless history of the beloved Bible stories that many of us grew up on in Sunday school.

Society today is experiencing a rapid decay the likes of which our great grandparents would have never been able to fathom. We need to give our children the tools to live within a society that is hostile to their belief system. We need to teach them how to share their faith in a clear and loving way.

We would all do well as Christians to have an eternal perspective of this life on earth as well as passing that perspective onto our children. When we live life with eternity as our destination, it makes good since to work at being a good steward of our children. They are our future should the Lord tarry.

Our children will need a firm foundation to stand on in the days ahead. They will need God's Word hidden in their heart. It is our responsibility as their parents to help them achieve that.

When we take seriously the stewardship and training of our children, God's blessings have a way of finding their way into our lives. But more important than any blessing, is giving our children an eternal heritage they cannot lose.

Proverbs 22:6 Train up a child in the way he should go, Even when he is old he will not depart from it.

Wise Words From My Wife

I discussed in other columns that debt is straining marriages, causing stress and destroying retirement dreams all across this nation.

Your first priority must be to take that first step of recognizing there is a debt problem. Once you determine you want to change the way you manage your finances then you are ready to take the necessary steps to eliminating the debt.

Getting in debt did not happen overnight (in most cases) and it does not get eliminated overnight (in most cases).

The first thing you want to do is gather the most recent credit card statements you have for every one of your credit cards. Gather all other debt payments that you owe such as car payments, mortgage payments etc.. The easiest way to get those debts paid off is to do what I call debt stacking. Here is example.

Credit Card A balance = $1500.00 at
21 % interest with monthly payment $50.00

Credit Card B balance = $850.00 at
17 % interest with monthly payment $35.00

Credit Card C balance = $800.00 at
17% interest with monthly payment $35.00

Credit Card D balance = $200.00 at
24% interest with monthly payment $15.00

This is how debt stacking works. You would take these payments and make the minimum payment until one of the credit cards was paid off. In this case it would be the $200.00 most likely. Once that balance is paid (while continuing to pay the minimum on the other cards) you take that $15.00 dollars you were already used to spending and not having in the budget, and apply it to the next credit card payment. You would then be paying $35.00 + $15.00 = $50.00 towards the $800.00 balance. Once that credit card balance was paid off you then take the $50.00 + $35.00 = $85.00 and pay that amount towards the next credit card balance of $850.00, and once that one is paid you put the $85.00 + $50.00 = $135.00 towards the $1500.00 balance. The momentum takes effect and before you know it they are all paid off and you have an extra $135.00 per month to put into a savings account.

This only works though, if you are willing to cut those cards up and stop spending on them. I tell people to have one credit card in case you are in need of a service that only accepts credit cards, but make it a point to pay the balance off at the end of the month. Never use a credit card to purchase anything you cannot pay in full when the bill comes in at the end of the month.

Once these high interest, credit cards are paid off then use the same method to pay off the car notes and mortgage much faster.

By working this simple debt stacking method you can shave off years of debt and interest payments saving yourself thousands of dollars wasted on interest payments. Not to mention the peace of mind you can have by not being a slave to debt.

Phillipians 4:19 And my God will supply all your needs according to His riches in glory in Christ Jesus.

In His Service,

Ray&Tracye Gano
Prophezine

Our ministry - http://www.prophezine.com

Our CD - Escape The End Time Money Snare - http://www.endtimemoney.com

Making Money on the Homestead